Just a bit of fun....

According to one (pro-tory) commenter who replied to the MORI poll story on political betting said that this would give an indicative result of...

450 Conservatives
152 Labour
17 Lib Dems
31 Others

But this comes with HUGE caveats in that this would mean that the Conservatives would win Glasgow North. (Rather than 'HUGH' Caveats, ahem.)

Applying a wee bit of judgement to these figures let’s assume that the 18 Northern Irish MPs are not Labour, LibDem or Conservative. This poll doesn`t tell us much about the circumstances there so for the sake of this exercise let assume there is no change.

That leaves 632. Wales has 40 MPs, currently with 1 Indy, 3 PC, 3 Conservative, 4 LD and the rest being Labour. The Conservatives are making in-roads in Wales but certainly not the strides they are making in England. PC is doing relatively well and is seen to be performing in the Welsh Government. Labour are getting battered from all side as the last local elections showed and the Lib Dems are slipping back. So for Wales I think we can safely take that this poll would lead to 9 PC, 9 Conservative, 3 LD, 1 Indy and 18 Labour.

That leaves 592. Scotland has 59 MPs, 1 Indy (Speaker), 7 SNP, 1 Conservative, 12 LD and 38 Labour (including Glenrothes currently). Polls in Scotland show the SNP leading Labour, with a wee tiny bit of movement for the Conservatives and the Lib flat lining at best. So using this poll as a basis I would guess that the SNP would take 24, Conservatives 5, LD 7, 1 for the Speaker and 22 for Labour.

So the combined Scotland, Wales and NI result would be...

40 Labour
24 SNP
14 Conservative
10 Lib Dem
9 PC
9 DUP
5 Sinn Fein
3 SDLP
1 UUP
1 Indy (Wales)
1 Speaker

That’s 117 seats accounted for, leaving the 533 seats of England. Currently being (roughly and using wiki) 192 Conservatives, 284 Labour, 47 Lib Dems and 3 Independents. Again for the purposes of this execise I`ll assume that 2 of the Indys (being Health Concern and George Galloway) will get back in.

So in the 531 remaining English seats, using the supposed poll as the touchstone, the Conservatives would get 385, Labour 131 and the Lib Dems would get 15.

So the overall UK result (based on guesswork and the MORI poll) would be...

399 Conservatives
171 Labour
33 SNP/PC
25 Lib Dem
3 Indy
1 Speaker
18 NI MP

399 Conservatives to 251 Others, a majority of 148.

As the SNP and PC sit together as one ‘group’ in Westminster they would become the 3rd largest grouping in the commons overtaking the Lib Dems.

This poll then is catastrophic for Labour, and may even spell the end of the Lib Dems.

But BUT this is all speculation based on one poll result so in the best traditions of Peter Snow...it’s just a bit of fun.