Just a Bit of Fun Redux

Early this week I assessed a MORI poll and had a look at what sort of result we could extrapolate from it (with the usual caveats and it just be a bit of fun.

My projection was...

399 Conservatives
171 Labour
33 SNP/PC (SNP 24, PC 9)
25 Lib Dem
3 Indy
1 Speaker
18 NI MP

399 Conservatives to 251 Others, a majority of 148.

Last night a massive poll of around 35,000 people in over 200 marginal seats, carried out by YouGov on behalf of Politics Home. The result won`t make for happy campers at the Labour conference in Manchester.

The projected result from this huge poll is...

398 Conservatives
160 Labour on
44 LibDems
28 SNP/PC (SNP 23, PC 5)
2 Indy
18 NI MP

398 Conservatives to 252 Others, majority of 146.

So to compare my projection based on the smaller poll and some applied guesswork and the projection based on the huge poll...

I`m pretty much bang on for the Tories and the majority. I`ve overestimated Labour slightly and underestimated the Lib Dems slightly – the huge poll focussed on marginals and the question of tactical voting. From that it seems that the Lib Dems benefit to the expense of Labour in a number of areas. Also the Tories do a wee bit better in Wales than I projected.

That aside I wasn`t a million miles out. It should also be noted that this uber-poll was carried out in July and the UK electoral outlook for Labour certainly hasn`t go any better since then.

The Politics Home projection includes in the SNP winning both Edinburgh East AND Edinburgh North and Leith. Step forward Calum Cashley MP!

Here is how the electoral map would look according to the Politics Home projections...