Glenrothes Polls

A few polls on the Glenrothes by-election have come out today and there is a marked difference in them.

ICM asked the question “If the Glenrothes by-election was a vote of confidence on Gordon Brown how would you vote -. The result for that question was SNP 44%, LAB 41%, LD 8%, CON 5%.

But the problem with the question being useful in terms of how a by-election might go is that the question is seriously loaded. A simple how are you going to vote would have been much more useful to the electoral geeks of this world (like me!).

However in the Sunday Times there are ‘Senior Labour figures’ who believe that the SNP will win the Glenrothes by-election by a majority of 5,000. This figure is based on supposed canvass returns. I think for that to happen a swing in the region of 28% would be required (I think). IN Glasgow East the SNP managed to get a 22% swing and Labour’s position has slipped back from that point so 28% in a by-election is not completely unthinkable – but it would still be an incredible result.

The significant problem with any of these polls is that the date has not yet been set so minds have not yet been focussed (with the accompanying increase of TV coverage etc).

I was out campaigning in Glenrothes yesterday (and I`ll be back during the week) and the reaction on the doorsteps was fantastic. What was also evident was that there was very little sign of the other parties being out campaigning. The only one spotted was the Conservative candidate himself.

What was really encouraging was there was a real appetite from the SNP activists to keep campaigning – there is no sign of the foot being taken off the gas.

Hopefully Gordon Brown will be good enough to call the by-election and move the writ necessary to allow it to take place (all chat points toward November 6th).