Will Brown be cut after Crewe?
The blogosphere is a-tingle with predictions of the downfall of PM Gordon Brown. The focus for the various proclamations of the Crewe and Nantwich by-election (currently ongoing).
Jeff at Tactical Voting has summed things up nicely and was the first I’ve seen of talk that Alan Milburn is apparently ready to ask Brown to step outside should the by-election go the way of the Conservatives. It shouldn`t be forgotten that the Conservatives haven’t won a by-election in around 25 years.
In an area which has been bread and butter to Labour for many years it now seems that the people of Crewe and Nantwich are about to let Brown know exactly what they think of him. There is a tendency for sections of the commentariat to oversell the significance of by-election results. As Jeff observes this one is a bit different though. All the coverage that I`ve caught of the election has shown its the Tories with their tails up. No doubt CHQ will be calculating that throwing everything they can at C&N in hopes of a win will be a very welcome following their London Mayoral success.
A win and the Tories can cling to a strange force in politics – momentum. If there is a perception that the momentum is with you then you start to look like contenders. If the momentum is against you (see Gordon brown for details) then everything you touch turns to poo.
If Labour hold the seat, even with a slightly dented majority, it`ll quickly be dismissed (Safe Labour area, majority insurmountable for Tories etc).
If the Tories take it...fireworks. The Tories, outwith that first by-election win in a quarter of a century, claim momentum. Challenge Brown to hold that General Election. In short rub his face in it a wee bit.
But for Brown the problem of a Conservative win isn`t losing the momentum for a general election, expected by some in May 2010, instead it’s the problems it gives him within the Labour party.
The stalking horse is apparently to be Alan Milburn (or perhaps Clarke and Milburn the candidate proper), arch-Blairite and old enemy of Brown. If this was to happen who knows who might throw their hat in the ring this time?
A Conservative victory would have Brown, but not necessarily Labour, staring at oblivion. Brown would do well to remember the old phrase from the Commons ‘your opponents are in front of you, but your enemies are behind you’.
3 viewpoints:
On matters Crewe the Metropolitan meeja should re-appraise themselves with events north of Watford and historic results.
Sorry I've been so long in finding your blog. An SNP friend - of whom I have the misfortune to have several, told me that in April you had written that wehile I was number 3 on Labour's list of Scottish European Parliamentary candidates, he was at number 4, whie I was at number 3. In fact, I had more votes than any other candidate, so there is no question of it being unfair that I should be above Paul on the list.
Thanks for your suggestion that he/he who polls most votes should head the list; no-one was more surprised and delighted that I polled more votes than any other candidate than I was, since I belong to the socialist and co-operative wing of my party.
I'm enjoying your blog, thanks!
Hello Mary,
Welcome to the blog,
My wee birdie had obviously gotten things the wrong way round. As far as I`m concerned if you won the most support you should be number 1 on the list.
Perhaps Martin and Stihler will do the decent thing and stand aside for the winning candidate...I suspect you won`t be holding your breath though!
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