‘Bring it on’

As I watched Wendy Alexander on the BBC’s Politics Show on Sunday I was open mouthed as she effectively confirmed that she and Labour (in a remarkable volte-face without precedent) be supporting a referendum on Scottish Independence.

Why this sudden change of heart? Well she never really explained beyond saying that it was a ‘tactical’ decision. When pressed her boned of contention is that she says that Alex Salmond has said that the bill to hold the referendum will be introduced in 2010 and that the SNP have said they’ll hold the referendum in 2010.

She says that this would be impossible as a bill takes 9 – 12 months (depending on which interview with her you read or watch) to work its way through the Scottish Parliament. Her logic goes that since the bill will take 12 months then it can`t be introduced and held in the same year. By her logic that means the referendum would have to be held in 2011 and that wasn`t good as it was at the ‘fag-end’ (her words) of the parliament.

Now I don`t recall it being announced that the bill would be introduced in 2010, I can only recall Wendy making this assertion. But, let’s take her word for this and that the bill will be brought forward in 2010.

A bill taking 9-12 months to work its way though Holyrood? As Calum Cashley quite rightly observes...

“Then there's Wendy's assertion that a Bill takes nine months to pass through Parliament - erm, no it doesn't. Abolition of Bridge Tolls Act - introduced 3rd September 2007, passed 20th December 2007, became law 24th January. Graduate Endowment Abolition Bill - 22nd October 2007, 28th February 2008, 4th April 2008."

"I was puzzled about this - she used to be a Minister after all - so I looked at her Ministerial career: Communities Minister 1999-2000, Enterprise and Lifelong Learning 2000-2001, added Transport to that 2001, resigned in 2002. The only Bill she saw to completion was the Graduate Endowment (tuition fees) Act - and Nicol Stephen started it. She was never responsible for seeing a Bill all the way through the process - that's why she doesn't understand how Parliament works.”

Wendy says that it’ll be 12 months as it’s such an important topic. Well let’s look to the history of referendum bills on the constitution in different parts of the UK.

The obvious one to start with is the Scottish Referendum of 1997 –

Bill Published – 15/05/97
2nd Reading – 22/05/97
Date of Poll – 11/09/97

That’s under 4 months between the Referendums (Scotland and Wales) Bill being introduced to Westminster and the Referendum itself being held. For my money this was a very important and complex issue yet in under 4 months the process was complete from start to finish.

I think, though, there is a better example than the Scottish referendum of 1997.

The Northern Ireland (Border Poll) Act 1972 is a fascinating piece of legislation, the referendum itself had two options – do you wish NI to remain in the UK or do you wish to join a United Ireland.

This referendum and the legislation behind it is perhaps more relevant that the Scottish referendum of 1997 as it allowed for a part of the UK to leave the UK.

With this option of Northern Ireland leaving the UK the debate on the bill in Westminster must have been lengthy as this is surely equal to Scotland leaving the UK – a referendum debate that Wendy says needs 12 months.

Bill introduced on - 01/11/72
2nd Reading on - 21/11/72
Royal Assent on - 07/12/72
Poll Date - 08/03/73

Again roughly 4 months for the Northern Ireland (Border Poll) Bill to go from being introduced to the Poll being held. And just 37 days between the Bill being introduced and receiving Royal Assent.

On the bills highlighted by Calum Cashley and on the two referendums I`ve highlighted it’s very clear that introducing the bill in 2010 and holding the poll in the same year is more than comfortable.

Wendy hasn`t said by when the poll referendum should be held – only that it should be as sooner rather than later and that it shouldn`t be in 2011. OK, Wendy, it`ll be in 2010 like we said in our manifesto.

After the Labour MSP meeting the chair of the Labour group Duncan McNeil was giving the new Labour line on the referendum that:

“we are now in a position where, as a group, we will not vote down any Referendum Bill that comes into the Parliament... That's the change in the Labour group's position today. There is a sense that we need to get some sort of settlement on this issue, resolve the issue, and the opportunity is there now for the government to bring that forward... We are asking them to bring forward that Bill as soon as possible. It is a manifesto commitment."

The manifesto commitment is for a referendum in 2010 following the National Conversation (which is ongoing). He has said that they will not vote down any Referendum Bill – so I`ll take it they won`t be seeking to make any amendments to the one that will be brought forward.

It’s fairly clear now that given Labour won`t give an alternative due date and will only say 2011 is too late that they must be more than content with a referendum in 2010.